OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTIONS & TIPS
Over and Under tips is a betting market where a punter predicts limits of the number of goals to be scored in a certain match.
In any football game, there has to be some form of the result if the game is played to completion. The results are usually in the form of the number of goals scored in that match. For example, a match can end as 2-1, 0-0, 7-2, 3-4 and so on.
The overs and unders are however given in the form of a decimal, mostly with a 5 at the end. The lowest over, for instance, is an Over 0.5. This is the same to say that that a game will end with at least one goal scored. Note that if we used Over 1, then the meaning would change and be that at least 2 goals have to be scored in that game.
This package, however, concentrates on the Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 predictions. These are the most popular and most profitable of the Overs and Unders market.
These over and under tips are among the most profitable sure bet prediction Surebet offers to their clients. The over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals predictions are especially profitable since they come with very good odds. You can also upgrade to get the best over/under predictions today.
FREE OVER/UNDER 2.5 TIPS TODAY
Vitebsk - Fc Ruh Brest(Under 2.5) Odds: 1.58
Columbus Crew - Chicago Fire(Over 2.5) Odds: 1.81
Netherlands - Austria(Over 2.5) Odds: 1.7
Fluminense - Santos(Under 2.5) Odds: 1.66
ANALYSIS OF THE FREE OVER/UNDER 2.5 TIPS TODAY
Torpedo Zhodino vs Sputnik Rechica Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
To find if the Over 2.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 2.5 bookmaker probability with the calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.5 with an implied bookmaker probability of 66.67%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 2.5 outcome for this Torpedo Zhodino vs Sputnik Rechica match is 71.60%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain an expected value by 4.93%
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire Prediction
Surebet's experience has made us see ahead and recognize matches that will have quite some goals scored. This match between Columbus Crew and Chicago Fire is one of those. The odds for over 2.5 are also relatively good at 2 Take advantage.
All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 2.5 in this Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire match.
Poisson prediction model shows there is a 65.06% chance for the outcome while the ELO rating model shows a 72.41% chance for the same. Finally, 76.98% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 2.5.
This pretty much consolidates the prediction of an over 2.5 in this game.
The odds for Over 2.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 2 with an implied bookmaker probability of 50.00%.
Considering that the surebet probability for the Over 2.5 outcome for this Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire match is 71.48%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you gain the expected value by 21.48%.
The expected value for a OVER 2.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 2.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 2.5 in this Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire match is 114.44 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest Over/Under 2.5 Goals Prediction
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a under 2.5 in this Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated an 80.88% probability for an UNDER 2.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with an 80.88% probability for the same outcome. The third model, Poisson probabilities prediction model showed there's an 80.88% chance for an under 2.5 outcome.
This Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Under 2.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied UNDER 2.5 bookmaker probability with the calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.73 with an implied bookmaker probability of 57.80%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Under 2.5 outcome for this Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest match is 80.88%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 23.08%Expected Value, EV(UNDER 2.5), for a UNDER 2.5 result for this Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest match is calculated as follows:
Let P(UNDER 2.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(UNDER 2.5) * 100* 1.73 where 1.73 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for an UNDER 2.5 for Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest, EV(UNDER 2.5) to be 80.88% * 100 * 1.73, which translates to 120.81.
This is a positive Expected Value thus further validating this bet mathematically.All assessed indicators for this Vitebsk vs Fc Ruh Brest match show that not many goals will be scored in this game. 2 goals might even be on the higher side. An under 2.5 goals prediction is what you should really go with.
Netherlands vs Austria Over/Under 2.5 Prediction
The expected value for a OVER 1.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 1.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 in this Netherlands vs Austria match is 77.22 which is positive and therefore a good bet.The odds for Over 1.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.11111111111111 with an implied bookmaker probability of 90.00%.
Considering that the surebet probability for the OVER 1.5 outcome for this Netherlands vs Austria match is 83.95%, then this bet is not a value bet.If you play this bet then you lose the expected value by -6.05%All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 1.5 in this Netherlands vs Austria match.
Poisson prediction model shows there is an 83.43% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows an 83.96% chance for the same. Finally, 84.46% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 1.5.
This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a over 1.5 in this game.
Fluminense vs Santos Over/Under Prediction
Given the historical matches of these teams, it is almost clear that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave. The over/under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.
All signs indicate that not many goals might be scored in this game. 2 goals might even be on the higher side. An under 2.5 goals prediction is what you should really go with.
In as much as Santa Clara and Rio Ave are expected to score some goals in this match, I do not see a situation where they can score more than 3 goals. They have proved in the past that they lack the capacity to stage consistent attacks with shots on target against each other. An under 3.5 prediction for this match is just fine.
2 goals are expected to be scored in this match. If you prefer betting on this total goals betting market which usually comes with impressive odds then this is your best prediction.
NG vs OVER 1.5 has always been a low-scoring duel and not much is expected to change in this game. This bet comes with a probability of 26% and odds of 3.86.
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS TIPS - RECENTLY WON
These are some of the recently won Over/Under 2.5 goals tips and predictions
HOW TO BET ON OVER/UNDER PREDICTIONS
Definition: Over/Under Predictions
Over/Under predictions are predictions on the number of goals to be scored in a football match for betting purposes. There are however many categories involved. For instance, over 2.5 Predictions are forecasts that imply that the number of goals in a match will be either 3 or more while under 2.5 goals predictions are betting forecasts that a match will end in 2 or fewer goals. This technically means over 2.5 goals. The decimal for 0.5 applies across all goal thresholds since it makes betting easier. This method has been universally accepted as the standard for setting the threshold of cutoffs for goals.
Betting on Over/Under Predictions
Of all the Over/Under tips, over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals betting market is the most desirable among bettors. This is because the odds for both options are usually within desirable limits of about 1.4 to 2.2.
Besides, it is easier to make Over 2.5 and under 2.5 predictions than say 1X2 predictions since the options involved are usually 2 as compared to 3 in the 1x2 market.
We did an analysis of the Over/Under predictions betting market and below we share with you the findings. We list and discuss the 10 steps toy needs to make when betting on this betting market.
Consider national tendencies and averages on goal scoring
Understand the league’s average goals per match
Consider the teams’ averages as far as scoring is concerned
Consider the Players in the first 11 team
Compare with similar matches in the past
Run Poisson distribution analysis to see the most likely number of goals for each team
Look at the over 2.5 or under 2.5 odds to see if they are within your threshold
Make your final decision
We now delve into the details of each of the 10 steps above one by one to make you more comfortable in making your own superb over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals predictions.
Consider National Averages before making Over/Under Prediction
It is a known fact that teams in different countries have different scoring abilities during matches. In some countries, the number of goals scored is much less than those scored in other countries. In a study by Surebet, the country which leads in terms of average goals scored per match is the Netherlands whose average goal count per match is 3.14 goals per match. I essence, it means virtually all matches in the Netherlands ended in over 2.5 goals. It is closely followed by Iceland which has averaged 3.08 goals per match since 2006 in all leagues.
The top 10 countries with the highest number of goals per match are:
Netherlands: 3.1354422207876 goals
Iceland: 3.08043310131477 goals
Norway: 2.98238969892066 goals
Switzerland: 2.94461452824937 goals
Bolivia: 2.93778801843318 goals
Austria: 2.88253094910591 goals
Australia: 2.87150466045273 goals
Belgium: 2.80717966945086 goals
China: 2.7795 goals
USA: 2.77594465141032 goals
The top 10 countries with the least number of goals per match are:
Ecuador: 2.50677618069815 goals
Portugal: 2.44109843459804 goals
Venezuela: 2.42678227360308 goals
Romania: 2.4088122605364 goals
France: 2.39269833840393 goals
Colombia: 2.38535542490647 goals
Russian Federation: 2.37232649498036 goals
Egypt: 2.30160857908847 goals
Greece: 2.25720026791695 goals
Argentina: 2.21168798595435 goals
This clearly demonstrates that some countries simply have their teams scoring more goals than other countries. In a country like the Netherlands, it is safe especially in the long term, to consistently bet on over 2.5 betting market. In a country like Argentina though, the reverse is true.
Do not however be fooled that simply because the national average is high, every match in the country could simply end with over 2.5 goals. This is because even in a country, the averages between and among leagues may differ greatly. This caution during making over/under tips is demonstrated in the second point below.
Understand the league’s average goals per match - Very useful for Over/Under Tips
Different leagues in the same country can record differing goal averages consistently season to season. For instance, the average goals per match from 2006 to 2019 for England as a country is 2.77 goals. However, this is significantly lower than the average goals in the England Capital One Cup which is 3.4 goals.
The Capital One Cup tournament is the largest scoring league in England followed closely by the FA cup which has averaged 3.2 goals since 2006. The lowest scoring league in England is the English League 2 with 2.57 goals scored in thousands of matches for the last 13 years. This, therefore, demonstrates that the country average alone is never conclusive in making an over/under tips.
Even the league averages are not enough in making over/under soccer predictions.
Consider the teams’ averages as far as scoring is concerned(You won't make a good Over/under prediction without doing this)
Even is the same league, the scoring ability differs from team to team. Some team consistently or intermittently post higher or lower goal averages than the league's averages or even the country’s averages.
Let us consider the teams that have been playing in the England Premier League for the last 13 years for a demonstration.
The data below shows the average number of goals scored during matches involving them since 2006 to date.
As you can see, there are teams that have averaged over 3 goals per match for over a decade. Blackpool matches notoriously feature at the very top of this table with 3.5 goals scored during their matches. Please note that this does not mean they are good at scoring. It simply could be that they have been good at conceding goals all along. In fact, that is the case with Blackpool.
Manchester United at number 2, however, has a different story to tell. Their average of 3.07 goals is more likely due to their excellent goal-scoring abilities.
In both cases, it is safe to place an over 2.5 goals prediction for those teams. It does not really matter in this betting market if a team is good at scoring or conceding.
At the bottom of the table, Middlesbrough features as the team whose matches have had a hard time recording many goals. With 2.3, this team’s matches are the least yielding.
This is most likely due to their low goal-scoring ability and a better than average defense.
It is usually safe to place an under 2.5 goals prediction for matches involving such a team.
This is not however enough still to make an over/under prediction tips.
Consider the Players in the first 11 team (Over/under tips is basically predicting the goal-scoring ability of a match)
Some players are simply better than others. Especially when it comes to strikers, it is essential to consider if the top scorers for the stronger team are present or not. If the top-scoring players are all present, you can consider placing an over 2.5 goals bet. If they are not, then you can consider an under 2.5 goal prediction.
The rules are however different when it comes to defenders. If the best defenders for the weaker team are present, it is safer to consider an under 2.5 goals as opposed to over 2.5 goals. The importance of this can also be demonstrated during European handicap predictions or the Asian handicap predictions.
Compare with similar matches in the past(Did past matches end in over or under)
Head to head matches is a very crucial factor to consider when placing over/under 2.5 bet predictions. Therefore the next step in making over or under predictions is to look carefully at the outcomes of the head to head matches between the teams involved.
Let us assume we are trying to make an over 2.5 prediction or under 2.5 predictions for FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen. It is no point in looking at those matches when Byer Leverkusen was playing away because that does not technically qualify as a similar match. We are especially interested in matches with similar characteristics.
This, therefore, means we look at those matches when Mainz was at home, as it is supposed to be in this upcoming match whose over/under predictions we want to make.
Below are the outcomes of the last 9 matches when Mainz was at home and Bayer Leverkusen away:
You can then calculate the average number of goals per match for these matches. First, it is clear that out of 9 matches in the table have resulted in 3 or more goals while only 3 matches have resulted in less than 3 goals.
The average number of goals in these 9 games is 3.4 goals per match which are significantly higher than the 2.5 goals. This, therefore, means that the upcoming game whose prediction you want to make has a very high chance of resulting in more than 2 goals. Ao over 2.5 gaols prediction for this match is, therefore, the best you can make.
Run Poisson distribution analysis to see the most likely number of goals for each team
This is where the scientific or mathematical part comes in.
Having gotten the mean number of goals the two teams have been scoring against other teams and the mean number of goals they have been conceding, it is time to use the mean as a tool to predict the number of goals in the upcoming game. This will be vital in shaping your prediction for over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals.
You will however not use the raw mean gotten from the average of the number of goals for the head to head matches. A better indicator is the number of goals the home team has scored in other home matches against all teams and the mean number of goals the away team has scored while away in all matches.
For the case of Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen above, the Surebet system indicates that Mainz has scored an average of 1.919 goals at home per match for matches dating as back as 2006.
Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, have scored an average of 1.560669456
Goals while away for an almost similar number of matches.
The total average for both teams is therefore 1.919 + 1.560 = 3.479
This is the average number (λ) that you will use to come up with a table and graph representing the Poisson probabilities for all possible number of goals in this upcoming match.
The table should have the results below:
This graph represents the probabilities for each number of goals they are capable of scoring from 1-6. The probabilities for over 6 goals per team is represented in “others”
Adding up all probabilities of goal combinations that will lead to over 2.5 goals alongside the probabilities of goal combinations that would lead to under 2.5 goals, we get the following results:
Over 2.5 Goals – 65% chance
Under 2.5 Goals – 35% chance
This simply implies that this game has a 65% chance of ending with 3 goals or more and the chances for less than 3 goals are 35%.
Look at the over/under 2.5 odds to see if they are within your threshold
Ordinarily, you would not be inclined to bet on odds that are too little to be profitable. You should, therefore, have cut-off point or threshold for your over 2.5 goals predictions.
For instance, you could decide that you won't make an over 2.5 predictions or under 2.5 goals predictions unless the odds exceed 1.4. Therefore, in a case like the one above, look out and compare the odds for over 2.5 goals and if they are above your threshold then that id ok. Please note that unlike the correct score predictions that have very high odds ordinarily, over 2.5 or under 2.5 predictions have moderate odds of about between 1.4 to 2.5.
Make your final decision for your over or under 2.5 prediction
If you have done all the steps above, it is time to make the jump and place yours over 2.5 goals prediction bet. Remember, the over/under market is a lucrative one since it only has two possible outcomes. You can, however, use the premium Surebet predictions for the over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals prediction market. To join simply go to our pricing page and choose a package.
The following therefore are the common overs given by betting companies for punters to bet on:
OVER 0.5 - One goal or more
OVER 1.5 - Two goals or more
OVER 2.5 - Three goals or more
OVER 3.5 - Four Goals or more
OVER 4.5 - Five goals or more
OVER 5.5 - Six goals or more
UNDER 0.5 - Less than one goal
UNDER 1.5 - Less than two goals
UNDER 2.5 - Less than three goals
UNDER 3.5 - Less than four goals
UNDER 4.5 - Less than 5 goals
UNDER 5.5 - Less than six goals
Over/Under Predictions ANALYSIS
To analyze over 2.5 and under 2.5 predictions, you need to look at the previous matches of the teams involved. It is good to look at each team's previous ten matches in all leagues individually.
Then you should also have a look at the head to head matches the two teams have encountered each other. Find the average number of goals they have scored in past matches in all league, the specific league they are playing in and the head to head encounters. If the average is larger than say 2.5 per match, then it is safe to place an over 2.5 bet.
It is good however to be cautious because some times statistics can be deceiving.
That is why I advise you to use expert prediction services like ours.
Over/Under SURE PREDICTIONS
We usually have sure bet predictions and fixed matches in the over 2.5 and under 2.5 category. You can always contact us to give you the best over 2.5 and under 2.5 tips to enable you win big in this lucrative betting market.
Remember all our tips are sourced from the best fixed matches and sure bet predictions websites in the world. We buy the tips expensively and sell to you at only 3 dollars or 250 shillings per day. This package is enough to finish some of your most pressing problems today because the odds are usually good.
HOW TO PAY FOR UNDER 2.5 AND OVER 2.5 TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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